US Consumer: Eat the Rich or Eat the Risk?
Date:聽December 4, 2023
Moderator: James Goldstein, CFA – Head of Retail, 草莓流氓视频
Panelists: David Bussey – Senior Leisure Analyst, 草莓流氓视频
James Dunn – Head of Consumer Goods & Leisure, 草莓流氓视频
Todd Duvick, CFA – Head of Autos, 草莓流氓视频
Summary:
- Looking For the Cracks: A relatively robust landscape for consumer spending is not without pockets of weakness. What鈥檚 in store for 2024?
- Does the Music Ever Stop?聽2023 has seen extremely robust leisure and entertainment demand. Is Taylor Swift a secret stimulative fiscal policy tool? Are we structurally in a 鈥渓eisure-for-life鈥 world? Where does the goods vs. services mix ultimately shake out?
- Inflation/Affordability: Rising cost pressure on non-discretionary goods is altering consumer behavior towards more value seeking behavior. On more discretionary/big ticket items, rapidly rising consumer financing costs bring additional pressure鈥 EVs are an interesting case study.
- That鈥檒l Cost You: Some relief on commodity costs, but labor cost growth persists, and it increasingly feels like 鈥淵ear of the Union鈥 with successes at UAW, Longshore, Rails, Culinary Union, etc. along with big wins for minimum wage advocates (CA fast food, etc.). How do corporates navigate rising labor costs?
- How to Play It?聽Picking the winners/losers in credits.
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